David Prevost’s Col USAF (ret) Comments

One thing that has stood out in my dealings over time is the mindset and character (that is a gross generalization but effectively ground truth) when dealing with all tactical and most strategic situations in the Middle East.

All opponents (this includes our allies and “friends”) are completely force oriented when faced with making a response to provocation. Discussion, diplomacy, buying-off, (Obama’s $150B gift to Iran), rationale, “quid pro quo” and so on are totally secondary to force. Once a significant application of force is made in response to a provocation, then and only then is another avenue of resolution taken into account. That significant application of force may or may not be a one-time response, but it must be understood by the opponent to be resolute and repeatable. The most cogent example of this approach used by the United States is Reagan’s order sinking or damaging 6 ships of Iran’s navy after Iranian naval attacks in the Persian Gulf. It took Iran out of visible activity for several years. Perhaps the worst example is President Obama’s establishment of multiple “red lines” in Syria that were violated repeatedly with no response.

“Proportional response” is nonsense, is seen as weakness, and has a positive motivational aspect to our opponents. We view loss of life as a driver in the equation of our responses and they do not — martyrdom is in their playbook so “proportionality” is not remotely effective except to serve as a pot stirrer for the masses and a paeon to western squeamishness.

Israel is in a unique conundrum, in that they must deal with their version of the left in internal politics which insists on proportionality, appeasement and so on while at the same time must act as a good Middle-Eastern power and view force as the first and overwhelming response to provocation. No one else in the Middle East is in such an existential political and moral dichotomy.

Teddy Roosevelt was absolutely right, and President Trump would be better served with a little more of the “speak softly” part – although his use of the stick has proven remarkably effective. However, no matter what President Trump does, his political and media opponents will wail and gnash teeth with the unfortunate result of gaslighting those who have little idea of the underlying fabric of conflict in the Middle East.